Iowa is the nation’s second-largest farm exporter. When China hit back at U.S. tariffs, no state had more farm exports at risk than Iowa (NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor).
China agreed to increase its U.S. agricultural purchases. But from January through July, China bought less than $4 billion agricultural products from the U.S., amounting to less than 25% of the exports it committed to through 2028. China only purchased $6.9 million in U.S. corn exports in the first seven months of 2026, down sharply from $5.2 billion in 2022 (New York Times).
Costs have kept climbing at the same time. USDA expects farm production expenses to rise $21.2 billion this year, and fertilizer and fuel are among the sharpest increases (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Farm Policy News).
Diesel runs nearly every combine, tractor and grain truck, and it now costs about $2.78 a gallon more than a year ago (U.S. Energy Information Administration).
Iowa row-crop farmers now face a third straight year in which costs are generally higher than crop prices (Iowa State University and Iowa Farm Bureau).
Tariffs and Lost Markets
- $14.9 billion in U.S. farm exports to China was lost to China’s retaliatory tariffs from March 2025 to February 2026 (NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor).
- $6.8 billion of those losses were soybeans, about half the total (NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor).
- $1.2 billion: Iowa’s estimated exposure, the largest of any state. California and Illinois were close behind (NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor).
- $5.1 billion: U.S. corn exports to China were down by more than $5.1 billion between January and July 2026, compared to sales in 2022 (New York Times).
Rising Input Costs
- $492.8 billion: USDA’s forecast of total U.S. farm production expenses in 2026, up $21.2 billion (4.5%) (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Farm Policy News).
- +15.3%: the rise in spending on fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner, to $39.6 billion (AFBF).
- +37%: the increase in Iowa corn production costs since 2021. Soybean costs are up 36% (Iowa State University and Iowa Farm Bureau).
- –5.5%: the expected drop in U.S. net farm income in 2026 after inflation, to $158.4 billion. That’s even with $47.4 billion in government payments forecast (USDA Economic Research Service; AFBF).
Record Diesel Prices
Diesel hit an all-time high as harvest got underway.
- $6.53 a gallon: the U.S. average diesel price on September 21, 2026, up from $3.75 a year earlier (EIA).
- +74.1%: the year-over-year increase in the national diesel price (EIA).
- $6.68 a gallon: the Midwest average the same week (EIA).
- +28.8%: the rise in U.S. farm spending on fuel and oil in 2026, to $21.6 billion (AFBF).
The Result: Farms Under Stress
- 62 Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies were filed in April 2026, the most in any month since February 2020 (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Farm Policy News).
- +130%: the increase in farm bankruptcies from April 2025 to April 2026 (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Farm Policy News).